My name is Phil and I'm your host for this post

...a dispatch with asteroids

Phil, predicting weather since 1886. As in every day, there is some.

Hi, folks. My name is Phil, or Punxsutawney Phil in full.

I come from a long lineage, sort of like Buddha or the Dalai Lama, but that’s where the resemblance ends. I’m a groundhog. Groundhogs weigh about nine pounds and live about three years. We also have very fast-growing teeth that tend to nearly get covered by fur.

I’ve been predicting the weather on February 2 of every single year since 1886. Or more specifically, I’ve been predicting how soon Spring will arrive. If I come out of my den and see my shadow, there will be six more weeks of winter. If I don’t see my shadow, spring will come soon.

German settlers brought the tradition to America, but before they made the trek to America, they checked to see if a hedgehog saw its shadow, not a groundhog. Due to a lack of hedgehogs on this side of the Pond, settlers settled on another hibernating animal, the groundhog, instead.

In 1886, February 2 was named Groundhog Day, while in 1887, the first forbear-prognosticator made his prediction, and where each of our lineage does the same each year.

According to birth records, rather, according to legend, I am 139 years old. Also according to legend, my immortality stems from the secret elixir of life I — and only I — guzzle each summer from the Groundhog Guzzler only I can guzzle from.

On the 364 days each year I’m not snoozing in my den, I’m an astrophysicist. That’s how I know that an asteroid spotted in Chile about 6 weeks ago, has risen to the top of Impact Risk Lists maintained by the US and European space agencies.

Based on current measurements, the asteroid has a 1.3% chance of smashing into Earth on 22 December 2032, or put another way, a nearly 99% probability of not doing so. It just requires a bit more attention — rather a great deal more attention — to determine its precise orbit and our level of risk.

Should things get worse, my job may change from predicting when Spring will arrive to predicting IF it will arrive instead. Sadly, in addition to asteroids, there are crazy men with nukes.